Statistical models for tourism flows prediction

Tourism is a complex and highly competitive sector. In this scenario incoming tourism flows represent one of the key indicators for public institutions, that wish to adopt an informed decision making process for resource allocation. The accurate and timely knowledge of both the interregional and the foreign component at a sufficiently detailed geographical level of such flows allows a better strategical, tactical and operational planning of marketing activities. The “statistical models for tourism flows prediction” project, funded under the Interreg III A ALCOTRA program, focused on two different case studies, the first proposed by the Assessorato al Turismo della Regione Piemonte and the second by the Comité Régional du Tourisme Riviera Côte d’Azur. The paper describes the statistical methodology that has been used together with some of the results that have been obtained concerning tourism flows in Piedmont. Due to the limited space that is available, only a short overview of the French study has been given.