Impacts of climate change on management policy of the harbors, land areas and wetlands in the Sao Paolo State Coastline (Brazil).

Santos harbor and São Sebastião Oil Maritime Terminal are the most important oil and gas facility in the São Paulo State Coastline. Santosharbor had, in the last decade, increased rapidly the container handling rate, being the first in Latin America. Santos Metropolitan Region is one of the most important of Brazilian Coastline, also considering the tourism. For that great economic growth scenario it is very important to have wave climate and tidal levels well known considering the sea hazards influence in ship operations. Since the hind-cast just represents the deep water wave climate, to make time-series of the wave’s parameters in coastal waters, for evaluation of sea hazards and ship operations, it is necessary to take into account the variations of those parameters in shallow waters with coastal instrumental data. Analysis of long term wave data-base (1957- 2002) generated by a comparison between wave’s data modeled by a “deep water model” (ERA40-ECMWF) and measured wave’s data in the years 1982-1984 by a coastal buoy in Santos littoral (São Paulo State, Brazil) was made. Validation checking procedures with instrumental measurements of storm surges made in other years than 1982-1984 shows high level of confidence. These data, obtained from the climatological analysis compared with a data set found from a scale model of the whole area of Santos Bay, Estuary and nearby beaches (Brazil), showed the impact of maritime climate changes, wave climate and tides upon harbor and coastal structures maintenance, beaches stability, tidal inlet saline intrusion and wetlands flooding. In the same time, the complex environmental system, that characterized the area included between Santos and Caraguatatuba, generates different natural hazard event affecting the maritime activity. A comparative study about the coastal flooding (Santos area) and the fluvial flooding (Juqueriquerê river) was conducted. An analysis about the sea level rise, the wave climate and the flooding risk as well as the sediment transport was developed. Considering the increasing of the sea hazards, the high values of the facilities and infrastructures in São Paulo State Coastline, it is necessary to mitigate the risks from the point of view of the harbor and coastal structures maintenance and projects purposes increasing defenses procedures. Hence, based on the results obtained by the Authors in previous researches, are highlighted guidelines strategies suggested for Access Channels dimensions, wharves free-board, jetties and breakwaters dimensions, dredging rates, rigid and flexible littoral defenses, saline intrusion and land protection against flooding (including wetlands).