Impact of Climate Change on the Santos Harbor, Sao Paulo State (Brazil)

Santos Harbor Area (SHA) in Sao Paulo Coastline (Brazil) is the most important marine cargo transfer terminal in the Southern Hemisphere. A long term relative tidal level variability assessment shows a consistent response to relative sea level rise. A wave data base Wave Watch III was compared with a long term wave data‐base generated by the ERA40‐ECMWF (2003), both local validated. The current bed level of SHA Outer Channel is ‐15.00 m (Chart Datum or, in abbreviation, CD), maintained by dredging. According to the cargo throughput forecast, in 2025, the Access Channel will have to be deepened to level of ‐17.00 m. The feasibility of that choice is discussed from a technical, economical and conceptual navigation point of view in that context. A data set found from a scale model of the whole area of Santos Bay, Estuary and nearby beaches, showed the impact of maritime climate changes upon the coastal area. In the previous researches developed by the authors, it was demonstrated that the wave climate, the tides and tidal currents affect harbor and coastal structures maintenance, beaches stability, tidal inlet, sediment transport, saline intrusion and wetlands. Considering the increasing of the sea hazards and the high values of the infrastructures in that coastline, it is necessary to mitigate the risks. Hence, based on the results obtained by the authors, are highlighted guidelines strategies suggested for Access Channels dimensions, wharves free‐board, jetties dimensions, dredging rates, rigid and flexible littoral defenses and land protection against flooding (including wetlands).