System dynamics modelling for electric and hybrid commercial vehicles adoption

Problems caused by the increasing freight transportation demand in cities call for integrated solutions where all stakeholders’ efforts are coordinated, in order to both reduce the negative impacts of freight transportation, such as pollution and congestion, and carry no disadvantages to public and private operators. Among the solutions that can be implemented for these purposes, one of the most studied and applied one is the partial or total substitution of commercial vans with low emission vehicles. Previous studies have been focused mainly on the vehicle-related factors that make such adoption sustainable for the private stakeholders. However, there is a lack of contributions that also take into account the operational aspects of a city logistics system. In order to contribute to this literature, our work develops a System Dynamics model that assesses the adoption of low emission vehicles by analysing the most important operational factors typical of a freight distribution system. Results of the simulation and the sensitivity analyses demonstrate that the adoption of low emission commercial vehicles is feasible within a reasonable time period if some strategies are put in place. For instance, public contribution including both incentives to low emission vehicles and disincentives to traditional ones could effectively increase the adoption process, along with effective advertising campaigns about the operational benefits given by such distribution model.