Testing Socio-Economic Demographic Variables on building energy consumption scenarios at the urban scale in Italy

In order to meet EU 2020 energy efficiency aggressive goals, there is a need to scale up the achievement of real energy consumption savings of current high performing building to the urban level. However, current low-energy, zero carbon, and net zero energy buildings are not performing as designed. Within the building sector industry there is an increasing concern about the mismatch between expected and actual performance, typically addressed as the ‘credibility gap’. The reasons for this discrepancy vary, but are mostly rooted in oversimplifying or ignoring occupant behavior in the building operation process. In this view, the presented study is testing the magnitude of socioeconomic demographic variables on building energy consumption energy scenarios at the urban scale. Measured thermal energy consumption data for a block of building in Torino, Italy are coupled with Geographical System Information (GIS) public census socio-economic data related to building occupants and analyzed through data mining techniques. Hence, energy model scenarios will be drawn to represent the impact of different building occupant profiles over mid-long term building energy consumption at the urban scale. Interpretation of the energy scenarios may allow energy designers and modelers, building operator and manager to develop energy efficiency measures and standards taking into account the leverage of socio-economic factors related to building occupants. Results may also support energy and urban planners to the release of energy policies and the development of robust energy urban planning tools aiming to bridge the “credibility gap” of targeted energy efficiency in building.