Subsidence Modeling Validation Through Back Analysis for an Italian Gas Storage Field

The multi-disciplinary work described in the paper was aimed at analyzing and predicting the cyclical ground surface movements induced by underground gas storage (UGS) activities in a depleted gas field located in the Po Plain (Italy). The field has been operated as a storage facility for nearly three decades. Currently, the possibility of delta-pressuring the reservoir (i.e. to increase the maximum operating pressure above the initial reservoir pressure) to enhance the storage performance is being considered. Significant information was collected over time: 2/3D seismic surveys, geological and sedimentological studies, 60+ logged wells, geotechnical lab tests and 50+ years of production history and monitoring were available for the development of a fully integrated static–dynamic–geomechanical analysis. The mechanical aspects of the study are the focus of this paper. The data coming from different sources at different scales were analysed and integrated to set up and characterize a 3D finite element method mechanical model to calculate the surface movements induced by UGS activity by adopting an elasto-plastic constitutive law. The model was then calibrated via a back analysis approach, i.e. the model parameters were fine-tuned so that the simulated subsidence/uplift would compare satisfactorily with the ground movements collected over nearly 10 years of monitoring via interferometric synthetic aperture radar analysis in the region under investigation. Eventually, the calibrated model was used as a forecasting tool for subsidence evaluation under different future storage strategies, including delta-pressuring conditions. Results proved that no significant subsidence is expected even if the maximum operating pressure reached 120 % of the initial formation pressure.