We introduce a multivariate hidden Markov model to jointly cluster time-series observations with different support, that is, circular and linear. Relying on the general projected normal distribution, our approach allows for bimodal and/or skewed cluster-specific distributions for the circular variable. Furthermore, we relax the independence assumption between the circular and linear components observed at the same time. Such an assumption is generally used to alleviate the computational burden involved in the parameter estimation step, but it is hard to justify in empirical applications. We carry out a simulation study using different data-generation schemes to investigate model behavior, focusing on well recovering the hidden structure. Finally, the model is used to fit a real data example on a bivariate time series of wind speed and direction

Bayesian hidden Markov modelling using circular-linear general projected normal distribution / Mastrantonio, Gianluca; Maruotti, Antonello; Jona Lasinio, Giovanna. - In: ENVIRONMETRICS. - ISSN 1180-4009. - 26:2(2015), pp. 145-158. [10.1002/env.2326]

Bayesian hidden Markov modelling using circular-linear general projected normal distribution

MASTRANTONIO, GIANLUCA;
2015

Abstract

We introduce a multivariate hidden Markov model to jointly cluster time-series observations with different support, that is, circular and linear. Relying on the general projected normal distribution, our approach allows for bimodal and/or skewed cluster-specific distributions for the circular variable. Furthermore, we relax the independence assumption between the circular and linear components observed at the same time. Such an assumption is generally used to alleviate the computational burden involved in the parameter estimation step, but it is hard to justify in empirical applications. We carry out a simulation study using different data-generation schemes to investigate model behavior, focusing on well recovering the hidden structure. Finally, the model is used to fit a real data example on a bivariate time series of wind speed and direction
2015
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11583/2664908