Quantitative estimation of uncertainty in human risk analysis

This paper is aimed to candidate the use of an ISO standard procedure (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, GUM) for quantitative evaluation of uncertainty in Human Risk estimation under chronic exposure to a hazardous chemical compound. Risk was evaluated by using the usual methodologies: the deterministic reasonable maximum exposure (RME) and the statistical Monte Carlo method; in both cases the procedures to evaluate the uncertainty on risk values are detailed. The paper put in evidence that the procedure is able to single out the variables that contribute mostly to the uncertainty. The obtained results show that the application of GUM procedure is easy and straightforward to estimate the uncertainty value on the results of risk estimation. The procedure is applied to a real case concerning the ingestion of milk contaminated by dioxins in a northern part of Italy; the risk value resulted to be over the minimal threshold of 10−6 with 20–80% confidence.